El Nino Seen Triggering Next World Warmth Record

El Nino Seen Triggering Next World Warmth Record

Date: 14-Jan-11
Country: NORWAY
Author: Alister Doyle

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest on record, according to U.S. agencies, but is likely to be overtaken soon by the next year with a strong El Nino weather event, experts said on Thursday.

A gradual build-up of greenhouse gases from human activities is heating the planet but natural events such as El Nino, which every few years warms the surface of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can have a far bigger immediate impact.

"It will take an El Nino year to break the record, so possibly the next one," said professor Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Britain.

On Wednesday, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year since reliable data started in 1880, capping a decade of record temperatures.

Last year started with an El Nino, as did 2005 and 1998 which is rated the warmest year by the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The WMO is likely to give a view of 2010's ranking in late January, after compiling temperature data that is also due from Jones' unit alongside NCDC and NASA. El Nino can disrupt world weather, with effects on everything from food to energy prices.

Knut Alfsen, research director at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, said greenhouse gases from human activities caused the Earth to absorb more energy than it radiated into space.

"Most of that energy goes into the oceans -- so a record depends on the behavior of the oceans, typically an El Nino or La Nina event," he said.

LA NINA

A current La Nina, widely seen as a factor causing floods in Australia that have killed at least 19 people, is a natural cooling of the Pacific that mirrors El Nino.

Other natural events that affect temperatures include variations in the sun's output, shifts in ocean currents or big volcanic eruptions such as that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, whose ash dimmed sunlight worldwide.

Jones said that warming from 1979 to 2010 had been 0.51 degree Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit), or 0.016 C a year. But annual natural swings were far bigger -- in the largest 20th century shift, 1977 was 0.29 degree C warmer than 1976.

Jones was cleared of scientific misconduct last year after hacked e-mails raised questions about the reliability of data in the "Climategate" controversy.

The U.N. panel of climate scientists said in 2007 it was at least 90 percent likely that human activities were the main cause of global warming, leaving a slim possibility that natural variations such as the sun's output may be to blame.

And the climate system is far from fully understood. A study in the Journal Science in 2010 said the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere, which also retains heat, had declined since 2000 and braked the rise caused by greenhouse gases.

Governments are far from agreement on how to solve the problem. U.N. talks in Mexico last month agreed steps such as a fund to help poor nations cope with everything from floods to rising sea levels. But a binding treaty is far off.

(Editing by Andrew Roche)

http://planetark.org/enviro-news/item/60873

WESTERN MT WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING

WESTERN MT WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING

By Robin O'Day

• • 

Posted: Jun 26, 2010 5:54 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2010 5:55 PM

MISSOULA - Meteorologists from the Northern Rocky Coordination Center in Missoula say that we are in a transition from a "El Nino" weather pattern to a "La Nina" weather pattern.

This shift can make for an aggressive fire season, but Meteorologist Mike Kreyenhagen says that's not the case for us in Western Montana just yet.

"Our research has shown that we have some fairly active fire seasons when we roll out of an El Nino winter and into a La Nina summer. The wild card this year was that this spring was very, very, very wet. And so that has in our mind, knocked down the significant fire potential danger though the month of July."

Kreyenhagen added that he expects the fire danger for the month of August and September to be "normal".

When asked about what kind of winter we may see this year, Kreyenhagen said that if you're a skier then you should definitely considering buying a pass this winter.

"La Nina winters tend to dump a lot of snow, a lot of rain at the end of October. Snow for the high country, hunters are happy, skiers are happy. That's kind of the shift we're expecting."

http://www.kaj18.com/news/western-mt-weather-pattern-changing/

Apr 16, 2010

Hottest March on record

WASHINGTON - GLOBAL temperatures fuelled by El Nino seasonal warming last month chalked up the hottest March on record, US weather monitors reported on Thursday.

'Warmer-than-normal conditions dominated the globe, especially in northern Africa, South Asia and Canada,' the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a statement.

Combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record at 13.5 deg C, which is 0.77 deg C above the 20th century average of 12.7 deg C, it said.

Average ocean temperatures were the hottest for any March since record-keeping began in 1880, while the global land surface was the fourth warmest for any March on record, NOAA said, citing analysis from the National Climate Data Center. It added that the January-March period was the planet's fourth warmest on record.

The US agency cited two Asian examples of high March mercury: Tibet had its second warmest March since records began in 1951, it said citing the Beijing Climate Center, while Delhi, India had its own second warmest March since 1901 record-keeping, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The record March temperatures are likely to give further ammunition to those who believe climate change is an urgent crisis which must be addressed at the global level. The United Nations and several countries have called for a legally-binding agreement on climate change, but at a summit in Copenhagen in December states failed to agree on a deadline to reduce carbon emissions that cause global warming. -- AFP

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/World/Story/STIStory_515214.html

Dry spell hits Misamis farmlands

Dry spell hits Misamis farmlands

Friday, April 9, 2010

SOME P30-million worth of crops in 672 hectares of farmlands in Misamis Oriental were reported to have been totally damaged due to the onslaught of El Nino phenomenon, according to the provincial agricultural office.

Provincial agriculturist Danilo Maputol reported during a recent Regional El Nino Task Force meeting that the dry spell wrought havoc to some 772 farmers in 10 farming municipalities in Misamis Oriental, particularly those who planted rice, corn and vegetables in the months of January and February, this year.

"There is no chance of recovery for those crops in 672 hectares that was reported," Maputol said, adding that crops planted in another 292 hectares may still have a chance of recovery if temperatures drop due to isolated inter-tropical convergence zone-induced rain showers, as reported by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

But Pagasa said the relatively high maximum temperatures, ranging from 32 to 37 degrees centigrade in Cagayan de Oro and the rest of Northern Mindanao, will persist until June this year.

As reported by the provincial agricultural office, vegetables and high-value commercial crops have the biggest estimated cost of damage during the three-month period at P12.784 million in 130 hectares, affecting 313 farmers in the municipalities of Balingoan, Binuangan, Gitagum, Initao, Kinoguitan, and Lugait.

Some 133 hectares planted with corn which are already in vegetative and reproductive stages and valued at about P4.131 million were also scorched and dried up due to extreme heat, affecting close to 300 farmers in 10 municipalities, including farming areas in Jasaan, Magsaysay, and Tagoloan.

Maputol specifically pointed to the rice fields in Magsaysay, where the irrigation facility of said municipality was damaged during the November 2009 flooding.

"Lack of water destroyed some 117 hectares of irrigated rice fields, the damage of which is estimated at P8.895 million," he said.

Even fruit trees were not spared by high temperatures and lack of rain water in about 292 hectares of orchard and the destruction could reach more than P4 million, according to the provincial agricultural office head.

Maputol said Governor Oscar S. Moreno has expressed deep concern over the damaging effects of El Nino that the latter has ordered the distribution of 100 water hand pumps with the assistance of the Department of Agriculture regional office 10.

"We are just making sure that the recipients of the hand pumps have open sources of water so that the equipment could be fully utilized," the agricultural officer explained, adding that the El Nino Task force is also into facilitating the availability of small water impounding projects out of DA's mitigating funds.(Sun.Star/MisOr PPO)

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cagayan-de-oro/dry-spell-hits-misamis-farmlands

Thursday April 1, 2010

Sime Darby may miss output target

KUALA LUMPUR: Sime Darby Bhd may miss its production target this year due to drier-than-usual weather conditions caused by El Nino, an executive said.

Output might fall by between 5% and 7% below forecast, Sime Darby Plantation Bhd managing director Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid said in aBloomberg interview.

The company was targeting production of 2.4 million tonnes from its plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, Azhar had said on March 9.

“It has a negative impact on us,” Azhar said. “Obviously production has been down.”

Lower output of the world’s most-consumed edible oil may help to extend a rally in prices, which rose 57% last year as the global economy moved out of recession. Palm oil may surge to RM3,200 a tonne in the second half as drier-than-usual weather caused by El Nino curbs yields in Indonesia and Malaysia, according to a forecast from Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd, on March 9.

Palm oil for June delivery rose 0.6% to RM2,561 a tonne on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange yesterday.

El Ninos involve a warming of the equatorial Pacific, bringing increased rain to South America and drought or reduced rainfall to Asia, hurting crops.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Reuters, Azhar said Sime Darby would spend RM3bil to RM5bil on its oil palm estates this year as global demand for the vegetable oil grows.

Sime Darby owns 530,000ha of estates planted with oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia and has a further 300,000-400,000ha of concessions from Liberia. — Agencies

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/1/business/5973542&sec=business

Starving sea lions wash ashore in California

Los Angeles, March 13: Hundreds of starving sea lions are washing ashore along the California coast as El Nino weather conditions warm the Pacific Ocean and drive away their usual prey, according to media reports Friday.

The report in the Orange County Register follows accounts earlier in the year of hundreds of sickand starving pelicans along the west coast, an occurrence that was also attributed to El Nino.

"We saw a large number of starvations at the end of last year," said Richard Evans, a veterinarian at the Pacific Marine Mammal Centre, who has been treating the sick sea lions. "Pups from that group are now out on their own, and they can't find anything to eat."

Twelve pups were being treated Thursday, nine of them in critical condition. They are the only survivors of 27 starving seal pups that had been brought into the centre in recent weeks.

Almost all the pups weak enough to be captured and brought to the centre have been starving so long that their bodies have begun to consume muscle and heart tissue, making survival unlikely, Evans said.

"They're just skin and bones," he said.

The veterinarian compared the seals' plight with a similar ordeal in the El Nino year of 1998, when thousands of hungry sea lions sought refuge on the beaches.

El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific that can have a significant effect on fish stocks and on other animals that feed on fish. Scientists believe the warming water is also responsible for the sudden disappearance of thousands of sea lions from San Francisco Fisherman's Wharf, where they had been a major tourist attraction.

--IANS

http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-69606.html

El Nino Dissipating, But May Linger Through 2010

El Nino Dissipating, But May Linger Through 2010

Date: 05-Mar-10
Country: US
Author: Rene Pastor

NEW YORK - The deadly El Nino weather anomaly should dissipate by early summer in the northern hemisphere, but there is a chance a weak version will linger for the rest of 2010, according to a U.S. government report issued Thursday.

The federal government's Climate Prediction Center said in a monthly update the warm waters which are a hallmark of the phenomenon are slowly easing, and this indicates "a transition to ... neutral conditions" in June or July.

But the CPC said there are "several models (which) suggest the potential of continued weak El Nino conditions through 2010, while others predict the development of La Nina conditions later in the year."

The CPC is a unit of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino means little boy in Spanish, and results in an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific. It also normally disrupts hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

The anomaly wreaks havoc in global weather patterns, especially the Asia-Pacific region, and was first noticed by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century who named it after the Christ child because it normally appears during Christmastime.

La Nina has the opposite effect of El Nino. It leads to cooler waters in the Pacific Ocean and is said to spur storm formation during the annual hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.

This year's El Nino was moderate to strong, according to the CPC, as sea surface temperatures stayed warm through February. But it was linked to the severe winter storms which have lashed the eastern United States.

It was also blamed for the weak monsoon which badly damaged the cane crop in India, forcing the world's biggest sugar consumer import larger amounts of the sweetener and sparking a rally which drove prices to a 29-year high.

A severe dry spell has also hit the archipelago countries of Indonesia and the Philippines, forcing the latter to book large orders of rice.

The Philippines is the world's biggest rice importer. Manila booked a record 2.6 million tonnes of the food staple for its 93 million people in 2010.

CPC said the effect of El Nino this spring would include drier-than-average weather over Indonesia.

In the United States, there should be above-average rain in the Southwest, the south-central states, and Florida, and below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, CPC forecast.

If El Nino persists into June, that would bring the weather pattern into the start of the annual hurricane season in the Atlantic, raising the prospect it may again hinder the formation of storms in the area.

The last major El Nino struck in 1997/98, killing scores of people and causing billions of dollars in damages around the world through floods in Latin America and drought in Asia and Australia.

(Editing by John Picinich)

© Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved

http://planetark.org/enviro-news/item/57001

El Nino changes in Pacific getting stronger

NOAA: El Nino changes in Pacific getting stronger

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The Associated Press | Posted: Thursday, December 10, 2009 3:30 pm | (0) Comments

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WASHINGTON - The El Nino climate phenomena has strengthened and is expected to last into spring, potentially affecting weather around the globe for the next few months, the government said Thursday.

El Nino is a periodic warming of the water in the tropical Pacific Ocean accompanied by changes in air pressure and winds that can influence weather worldwide.

In the Black Hills region, it has traditionally meant warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the late fall and early winter months.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific were about 3 degrees above normal in November, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

Computer models used to forecast climate do not all agree, but the agency said it seems likely the conditions will strengthen, or at least persist, through spring.

Potential impacts through February, NOAA said, include:

• Above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the United States, with below average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
• Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures across the northern tier of states, except New England, and cooler than average temperatures in the Southeast.
• Increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.
• Warming in the far eastern equatorial Pacific and increased rainfall in portions of Peru and Ecuador.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/article_b2c4595c-e5da-11de-8f8e-001cc4c03286.html

Anomali Iklim Kacaukan Produksi Pertanian

Anomali Iklim Kacaukan Produksi Pertanian

AP PHOTO

Ilustrasi

Artikel Terkait:

• Anomali Iklim Rugikan Petani Bawang Merah dan Tembakau
• Hujan Hanya Anomali, Waspadai Pohon Tumbang

MINGGU, 11 OKTOBER 2009 | 17:31 WIB

BOGOR, KOMPAS.com - Fenomena anomali iklim seperti El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) yang semakin sering terjadi dengan kondisi musim semakin ekstrem dengan durasi kian panjang dipastikan mengacaukan produksi pertanian terutama tanaman pangan. Pasalnya, umur tanaman pangan lebih pendek dibandingkan tanaman tahunan seperti perkebunan. Akibatnya, petani akan merugi karena mengalami kegagalan panen terutama petani yang berada di daerah dengan tipe curah hujan monsual (daerah yang memiliki satu puncak hujan).

Demikian dikemukakan Prof Dr Yonny Koesmaryono ketika menyampaikan Orasi Ilmiah bertema “Optimalisasi Pengolahan Potensi Iklim untuk Mendukung Kemandirian Pangan dalam Menghadapi Variabilitas dan Perubahan Iklim Global” dalam upacara pengukuhan tiga guru besar Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB), Sabtu (10/10), di Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor. Bersama Yonny, Prof Dr Ir Herry Suhardiyanto (Rektor IPB) dengan judul Orasi Ilmiah “Inovasi Teknologi Rumah Tanaman dan Hidroponik untuk Iklim Tropika Basah dalam Rangka Peningkatan Daya Saing Hortikultura” dan Prof Dr Ir Hermanto Siregar (Wakil Rektor Bidang Sumberdaya dan Pengembangan) dengan judul “Kebijakan Makro Ekonomi Berbasis Mikro” juga dikukuhkan sebagai guru besar IPB.

“Ahli agrometeorologi diharapkan dapat memprediksi jumlah hujan bulanan dan penentuan awal musim hujan yang akan bermanfaat bagi petani untuk meningkatkan hasil panennya,” kata Yonny yang menekuni bidang agrometeorologi dan menjabat sebagai Wakil Rektor Bidang Akademik dan Kemahasiswaan IPB itu.

Selain itu, potensi iklim di Indonesia juga seharusnya dapat dipetakan dengan tepat agar potensi itu bisa dikelola dengan baik. Jika potensi iklim setiap wilayah bisa diketahui, akan lebih mudah merancang strategi pengembangan produk pertanian unggulan masing-masing wilayah. Namun sampai saat ini masih ada kendala pada ketersediaan data iklim. “Data iklim dari stasiun pengamatan minim. Penyebaran geografis juga tidak terwakili. Pemerintah harus memperhatikan pengadaan peralatan di stasiun klimatologi terutama di wilayah sentra produksi pangan,” saran Yonny.

Pemerintah juga harus menyadari bahwa perubahan iklim bisa menjadi ancaman bagi kemandirian pangan Indonesia. Kajian Organisasi Pangan Dunia (FAO) tahun 2005 menunjukkan variabilitas dan perubahan iklim memengaruhi 11 persen lahan pertanian di negara-negara berkembang sehingga mengurangi produksi bahan pangan dan menurunkan produk domestik bruto (GDP) hingga 16 persen.

Untuk meningkatkan produksi dan produktivitas sistem pertanian, menurut Yonny, salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan menerapkan pola tanam yang tepat sesuai potensi iklimnya. Salah satu caranya adalah dengan pola penanaman tumpang sari dan tumpang gilir (misalnya antara padi dengan gandum) yang bisa mengurangi resiko kegagalan panen per satuan lahan bahkan meningkatkan penghasilan petani.

Konversi lahan

Hermanto dalam orasi ilmiahnya juga mengingatkan pentingnya ketahanan pangan karena pangan bukan sekadar kebutuhan pokok tetapi merupakan hak asasi. Perubahan iklim yang terjadi menciptakan ketidakpastian produksi pangan sehingga memicu kenaikan harga pangan. Perubahan iklim juga menyebabkan produktivitas pertanian menurun sementara stok pangan cenderung tetap bahkan berkurang. “Ini yang menyebabkan tingginya harga produk pertanian terutama harga pangan,” ujarnya.

Salah satu ancaman nyata terhadap ketahanan pangan, menurut Hermanto, adalah semakin tingginya konversi lahan pertanian ke nonpertanian terutama di kawasan pedesaan yang relatif dekat dengan perkotaan. Untuk mencegah konversi, pemerintah daerah perlu mengembangkan atau setidaknya mempertahankan lahan usaha tani tanaman pangan. Selain itu petani juga harus dibantu untuk memperoleh sertifikasi lahan pertanian dengan memberi label “pertanian” pada lahan agar tidak dikonversi. (LUK)

LUK

Editor: wsn

http://sains.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/10/11/17311966/anomali.iklim.kacaukan.produksi.pertanian

Unusual El Nino

Unusual El Nino hits Australia

September 16, 2009

El Nino is here - but it's a weird one.

The weather bureau says Australia is experiencing an El Nino weather pattern, which sweeps in from the Pacific Ocean and usually brings hot, dry weather to eastern states.

It's expected to last at least until the end of the year.

But the latest El Nino update, issued on Wednesday, says it's an "unusual" cycle because of warm conditions in the Coral Sea, off Australia's north coast, and in the far western tropical Pacific.

These areas are usually cooler than normal during an El Nino.

The update noted the country's east had been dry and very warm recently, as consistent with El Ninos.

© 2009 AAP

http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/unusual-el-nino-hits-australia-20090916-frgr.html

El Nino Mengancam NTT

Serius, El Nino Mengancam NTT

KOMPAS/LUKAS ADI PRASETYA

ilustrasi

MINGGU, 16 AGUSTUS 2009 | 07:39 WIB

KUPANG, KOMPAS.com — Prakirawan klimatologi El Tari Kupang, Mochammad Saiful, memperkirakan ancaman El Nino yang saat ini serius melanda warga Nusa Tengara Timur (NTT), terutama masyarakat di Pulau Sumba, Flores bagian timur, dan Alor.

"Di wilayah Sumba, Flores bagian timur dan Alor NTT, diperkirakan musim hujan baru akan terjadi pada akhir Desember dari biasanya antara akhir Oktober hingga awal November," katanya di Kupang.

Prakiraan tahunan menyebutkan, hujan akan mundur 10-30 hari. Apabila hal ini terjadi, maka hujan baru turun pada akhir Desember untuk wilayah-wilayah tersebut di atas.

Ia menyebut frekuensi kejadian El Nino cenderung meningkat dengan durasi yang semakin panjang, tingkat anomali iklim yang semakin besar, dan siklus kejadian yang semakin pendek.

"Anomali iklim tersebut menyebabkan penurunan curah hujan dan ketersediaan air irigasi yang selanjutnya berimplikasi pada penurunan produksi pangan sekitar 3,06 persen untuk setiap kejadian El Nino," katanya.

Penurunan produksi pangan akibat El Nino paling tinggi terjadi pada produksi jagung. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa produksi jagung paling sensitif terhadap peristiwa anomali iklim.

Dalam rangka menekan dampak negatif El Nino terhadap produksi pangan maka diperlukan kebijakan penanggulangan yang komprehensif.

Ada tiga upaya pokok menghadapi El Nino, yaitu pengembangan sistem deteksi dini anomali iklim, pengembangan sistem diseminasi informasi yang efisien tentang anomali iklim dan mengembangkan diseminasi.

Selain itu, memfasilitasi petani untuk menerapkan teknik budi daya tanaman yang adaptif terhadap situasi kekeringan di samping membangun dan merehabilitasi jaringan irigasi serta mengembangkan teknik pemanenan curah hujan.

"Untuk wilayah NTT di mana 70 persen warganya adalah petani, mulai merasakan ancaman El Nino berupa kekeringan yang mulai melanda sejumlah wilayah NTT, saat ini," katanya.

Ia menyebut El Nino itu hanya fenomena alam, di mana uap air yang ada berpindah ke arah laut Pasifik menyinggahi Indonesia, termasuk NTT.

"Jika pada saat itu fenomenanya positif, maka masa uap air di Sumatera bagian barat berpindah ke Afrika maka terjadi El Nino (musim kekeringan). Tetapi jika masa air di afrika berpindah ke Sumatera, maka akan terjadi La Nina (musim basah)," katanya.

Kedatangan El Nino akan semakin menambah persoalan kekeringan yang saat ini melanda provinsi kepulauan ini. Karena itu, seluruh komponen masyarakat diimbau untuk berwaspada dengan menyiapkan embung-embung dan fasilitas penampung air lainnya, serta menghijaukan lahan kritis yang ada.

BNJ
Sumber : ANT

http://sains.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/08/16/07390858/serius.el.nino.mengancam.ntt