Monsoon fading: El Nino may hit UPA growth curve
El Nino is a periodic weather anomaly that saps the monsoon of its strength on most of the occasions it occurs. It is marked by warming of Pacific waters that slow down the trade winds blowing from South America towards
WMO, the apex UN body on climate, warned that there was a more than 50% chance of El Nino this year -- double the normal probability in any other year.
For a government already on the edge with a two-week break in monsoon, the warning couldn't have come at a worse time. The path to economic stability in the past two quarters has been built on robust results from the farm sector and economists have been hoping that continued buoyancy in agriculture could keep
The monsoon system, sucked of some of its moisture by the cyclonic storm Aila over the Bay of Bengal, has already recorded a substantial delay in travelling up north leaving large parts of central, north and northwest scorching and devoid of rains.
Actual rainfall for the country as a whole for the first half of June (up to 17) has been recorded at 39.5mm against a normal of 72.5mm a deficit of 45% with 28 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions experiencing less than normal rains. With WMO warning that the El Nino effect could pick up in the third quarter of this year, the chances of monsoon being wrecked further turn higher.
"The trend over last five months, according to the best models, shows that El Nino could develop this year," said B P Yadav, spokesperson for IMD. "It is factored into the model based on which we shall be making our fresh predictions for the months of July and August on June 25. It is well known that El Nino years have impact on Indian monsoon, so we are keeping a watch," he added.
However, IMD as well as WMO did point out that El Nino is not an isolated factor to affect different weather systems, including monsoon, and the weatherman would have to factor in other parameters too to see how it would impact various regions.
The last two times El Nino occurred, in 2002 and 2004 it caused deficient rains in the subcontinent. Historically, El Nino has roughly impacted monsoon 2/3rds of the occasions it has occurred.
In view of the fears of a failed monsoon, IMD has decided to hold a full-scale press conference on June 25 instead of the normal practice of releasing its estimates.
Top echelons of the government are already worried over the monsoon with the Cabinet deciding to set up a committee of secretaries to keep a watchful eye at the skies. The committee has asked crucial states to make up contingency plans in case monsoon fails and is going to meet again on June 25.
For the government burdened with reviving an economy hit by global slowdown, trouble could brew on several fronts if the monsoons do not revive with expected force.
While the crops would suffer the most in rain-fed areas -- roughly 65% of the sown area would be directly hit -- in irrigated lands, the demand for irrigation and therefore power consumption is bound to get higher, increasing the government's woes.
But with water levels in almost all reservoirs having gone below their 10-year average as well as last year's levels for this period, worries are already mounting on the power front as well.
A good crop last season, supported by social spending through programmes like NREGS, was the bulwark of continued demand in the last two quarters, keeping the economy relatively healthy even as the manufacturing sector slowed down. A failed sowing in Kharif is bound to make it difficult for the government to secure the economic recovery UPA made a pre-poll promise of.
Another poll time commitment of UPA, the food security act, could become a post poll headache if crops fail. Falling food stocks as threats of drought loom large and rising food prices, that are high even in present times of historical negative inflation, would be the worst time for the government to test the ambitious project. But, it would naturally be the time when the expectations of the government to put the act in place would be the highest.
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