Tropics move into the upper North Island

By Phillip Duncan

5:30 AM Sunday Feb 6, 2011

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Cyclone Wilma was our first tropical cyclone. Photo / Northern Advocate

Cyclone Wilma was the first "tropical cyclone" in recorded history to ever hit New Zealand and it topped off a month that saw the tropics quite literally move into the upper North Island.

While many of us remember cyclones Drena, Fergus and Bola - or even Giselle (causing the 1968 Wahine disaster) - those storms were what we call "extra tropical". They started off as tropical cyclones but changed when they lost their tropical characteristics. Sounds like a minor technicality but it is a significant change in the power and energy inside the storm.

Most of the storms in New Zealand are lows - deep and stormy, but with a different structure to tropical cyclones, which are far more aggressive.

The closeness of the isobars in cyclones makes them so dangerous. Like an ice figure skater pulling their arms into spin faster, the tighter the isobars get the faster a cyclone spins. The more spread out the isobars are, the more spread out the winds are - and the air doesn't spin as fast. Extra-tropical is when the skater opens her arms and the winds spread out and generally become weaker.

I've spoken to numerous people in the know and we can find no records that show any other tropical cyclone hitting New Zealand.

cyclone when she arrived but Zelia and Vania were not. Incredible after so many years of no cyclones we had three named storms in just three weeks.

And Niwa's monthly climate report shows some parts of the North Island had 400 per cent of their January rainfall, which included Auckland, eastern Northland, the Firth of Thames, Coromandel and western Bay of Plenty - with many new records set. In contrast, it was dry for parts of inland south Canterbury and the Nelson Ranges.

Country99TV viewer Gael, from the Bay of Plenty, said she recorded a staggering 415mm of rain in January. "I thought the 178mm we got in 2010 was excessive!".

Our weather pattern has now shifted into a "spring-like" westerly. It's created huge temperatures - Gisborne reached 36C on Wednesday while that same morning Timaru started the day at 29C at 5am.

Our website WeatherWatch.co.nz had its biggest ever month in January with 500,000 page views and almost 200,000 visits. Cyclone Yasi on Wednesday saw our biggest single day of traffic with 25,000 visits and 65,000 page views in just 24 hours.

By Phillip Dunca
n

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10704493&ref=rss

‘Basyang’ death toll jumps to 53

NDCC: ‘Basyang’ death toll jumps to 53

07/17/2010 | 08:07 AM

The death toll from tropical cyclone "Basyang" (Conson) has continued to rise, with at least 53 confirmed dead as of early Saturday.

In its 5 a.m. report, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) also said 85 people remained missing while 29 were injured.

Of the 53 dead, 27 were from Southern Luzon, 17 from Central Luzon, and nine from Bicol. The injured included 23 in Southern Luzon, four in Bicol and two in Central Luzon.

Still missing are 46 in Bicol, 32 in Southern Luzon, and six in Central Luzon, and one in Western Visayas.

At least 45,470 families or 225,495 people were affected in 649 villages in 12 cities and 84 towns in 12 provinces in Central and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, and Bicol.

The NDCC said that as of Saturday, 1,096 families or 5,395 people are still staying in 31 evacuation centers.

Some 3,137 houses were destroyed and 22,340 damaged, it added.

Damage to infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and schools was estimated at P188.073 million as of early Saturday.

The NDCC said "Basyang" caused several maritime incidents involving at least 40 fishing boats, four tankers, five vessels, and seven motor bancas.

Impassable roads

Still impassable in Southern Luzon are:

• Sinisian Bridage along Palico-Balayan-Batangas Road, due to scoured slope protection and two road slips near Diokno Highway
  
  
• Tayabas-Mainit-Mauban Road (road slip)
  
  
• Spanish Arc Bridge in Palayan village in Liliw, Laguna (washed out)
  
  
• Detour road, slope protection and road shoulder in Majayjay Provincial Road in Majayjay, Laguna (washed out)
  
  
• Manus Bailey Bridge I along Junction Labangan-Murtha-Iriron Road in San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, passable only to motorcycles and tricycles.

Still impassable in Bicol is the Inalmasinan Spillway Km 148+650 along Caramoan, Catanduanes Road.

Damaged schools

Education officials said 68 schools were damaged in schools in Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Bicol and Metro Manila, with the damage estimated at P43.695 million.

Parang Elementary School in Camarines Norte is being used as an evacuation center, with three families housed there.

Agriculture damage

Agriculture in Bataan, Rizal, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes suffered damage from "Basyang."

The Agriculture Department said 1,060 hectares including 493 hectares rice, 87 hectares corn and 480 hectares high-value commercial crops were affected.

It said the losses in rice alone amounted to P1 million, although 453 hectares have a chance of recovery.

Meanwhile, The Health Department in Bicol is pre-positioning body bags amid search-and-rescue operations for missing people.

For its part, the Health Department in Southern Luzon has distributed medicines and cadaver bags to affected cities and towns. — LBG, GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/196306/ndcc-basyang-death-toll-jumps-to-53

An explosion in the tropics

By Philip Duncan

11:54 AM Monday Feb 15, 2010

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Homes destroyed in Aitutaki during Cyclone Pat. Photo / Supplied

The tropics have exploded into action with 3 major cyclones in just a week. Cyclone Oli slammed French Polynesia over a week ago then Pat hit the Cook Islands last week. Today severe tropical cyclone Rene is going to tear across Tonga as a Category 4 storm (5 is the highest). Damage is expected to be widespread and severe. A category 4 storm can flatten a well built house in Florida – imagine the damage it can do to the infrastructure in a place like Tonga.

Cyclone Rene should also have an impact on New Zealand (although it will be an ex-tropical cyclone by the time it gets this far south). The tropical storm is headed directly towards us according to all the latest computer models. However it is going to weaken significantly once it moves south of Tonga over cooler waters. It will also contend with a large high pushing in from the Tasman Sea and will most likely stop short of us and turn away to the south east avoiding a direct hit with the North Island. As far as effects from the storm here I think cloud and fairly strong south to south east winds will spread across northern or north eastern parts of the North Island.

I don't think Rene will bring severe weather to New Zealand but any tropical system should be closely monitored. They tend to have minds of their own.

For New Zealanders the biggest impact will probably be large swells in the east. If the storm is slow moving it will churn away offshore and drive in large swells to eastern parts of the North Island from Northland down to Hawkes Bay. Good news for surfers. For swimmers it's very important to realise that even though a storm may be well away from land with perhaps no visible signs of severe weather near you the ferociousness of a storm like this can create big waves and dangerous rips. In America last year a hurricane that was near Bermuda and didn't even produce cloud for America killed a number of swimmers right along the eastern US seaboard due to the dangerous rips and waves that were generated hundreds of kilometres offshore.You can read the latest on Cyclone Rene in our new Tropical weather news section here.

A deep low over the ocean is a bit like dropping a rock in a pond...large swells ripple out in ever increasing circles for quite a distance.

We'll be monitoring Rene closely – and the next tropical storm which may well form as soon as next week. The next name is Sarah.

1. Powerful cyclone pounds Tonga
2. Cyclone warning for Tonga and Niue
3. Rene slams US Samoa
4. $200,000 for cyclone-hit Cook Islands

Previous Posts

• Weather remains unsettled around country
• We are now in an extended dry spell

Be part of the news. Send pics, video and tips to nzherald.

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1. Cook Islands
2. Pacific Islands
3. Storms
4. Tonga
5. Weather Watch

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/natural-disasters/news/article.cfm?c_id=68&objectid=10626318

By Philip Duncan | Email Philip

Tropical Cyclone Edzani

Tropical Cyclone Edzani

Image Location

Tropical Cyclone Edzani formed over the Southern Indian Ocean in early January 2010 and intensified rapidly, according to the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center. As of January 7, 2010, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 100 knots (185 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 125 knots (230 kilometers per hour). The storm’s center was roughly 590 nautical miles (1,100 kilometers) southeast of Diego Garcia

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’sAqua satellite captured this image of Edzani over the open ocean at 1:55 p.m. Calcutta time (8:25 UTC) on January 7, 2010. In this image, Edzani has a well-defined eye surrounded by spiral arms extending hundreds of kilometers from the storm’s center.

The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS’ full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (2010, January 7). Tropical Cyclone 07S (Edzani) Warning. Accessed January 7, 2010.

NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument:

Aqua - MODIS

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/siteimages/earth_observatory.gif

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

   DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      SENSOR       STORM   08/0457 UTC   15.5S    77.7E     TMI         EDZANI -- Southwest Indian     07/0553 UTC   14.0S    79.8E     TMI         EDZANI -- Southwest Indian     07/0127 UTC   13.8S    80.4E     SSMIS       EDZANI -- Southwest Indian     07/0006 UTC   13.8S    80.4E     SSMI        EDZANI -- Southwest Indian     06/2046 UTC   13.8S    80.5E     AMSU        EDZANI -- Southwest Indian   

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html

12:56 AM GMT on Januari 02, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Advisory TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2:00 AM UTC January 2 2010 ====================================== At 9:00 WIT, Tropical Depression located at 9.8S 95.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. Forecast and Intensity ======================== 24 HRS 10.5S 92.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression) 48 HRS 11.3S 90.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) 72 HRS 12.4S 87.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HadesGodWyvern/comment.html?entrynum=23 Mauritius Meteorological Services Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010) 10:00 AM Réunion January 8 2010 ====================================== At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (915 hPa) located at 15.6S 77.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS Hurricane Force Winds ====================== 40 NM from the center Storm Force Winds ============== 60 NM from the center Gale-Force Winds ================= 100 NM from the center Near Gale-force Winds ====================== 160 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi circle Forecast and Intensity ===================== 12 HRS: 16.0S 76.3E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 24 HRS: 16.9S 74.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 48 HRS: 18.8S 71.5E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 72 HRS: 20.9S 69.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical) Additional Information ========================= Environmental conditions are still very favorable up to 36 hrs (particularly with a persisting equatorward upper outflow channel and a polar one building between 24-36 hours and sea surface temperatures are expected to keep on staying more than 27C sea surface temperatures until 48 hrs (west-southwest movement) and beyond sea surface temperature should lower more rapidly. EDZANI is expected therefore to stay steady or weaken slowly until 36-48 hrs, beyond its intensity should weaken more rapidly. The steering flow is a deep ridge in the southeast of the system. At the end of the range forecast, atrough south of the system should steer it more southern ECMWF ensemble prediction system gives 2 equiprobably scenario, one with recurve movement towards the trough, the other one without this forecast is a consensus of the available determinist Numerical Weather Prediction models which are in rather good agreement on the track and the speed of the system.

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ( 3 active systems as of 7 Oct, 2009 14:18 GMT)

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) offers a leading resource for predicting and mapping tropical storm activity worldwide. The public TSR web site provides forecasts and information to benefit basic risk awareness and decision making from tropical storms. The new TSR Business service and web site offers real-time products of unrivalled accuracy for the detailed mapping and prediction of tropical storm impacts worldwide. TSR has won two major insurance industry awards - the British Insurance Awards for Risk Management (2006) and for London Market Innovation (2004). http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ Current Data 24-hr Ahead Projections 7 Oct, 2009 14:30 GMT 8 Oct, 2009 14:30 GMT System Basin Lat Long Wind Cat Lat Long Wind Cat PARMA NW Pacific 18.1 N 122.5 E 35 kts TS 18.0 N 121.7 E 30 kts TD MELOR NW Pacific 31.7 N 134.5 E 75 kts 1 39.5 N 142.9 E 45 kts TS HENRI N Atlantic 18.1 N 56.1 W 45 kts TS 20.0 N 60.3 W 40 kts TS

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are 3 active systems as of 7 Oct, 2009 14:18 GMT