Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2:00 AM UTC January 2 2010
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At 9:00 WIT, Tropical Depression located at 9.8S 95.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS 10.5S 92.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 11.3S 90.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS 12.4S 87.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
10:00 AM RĂ©union January 8 2010
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At 6:00 AM UTC,
Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (915 hPa) located at 15.6S 77.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Near Gale-force Winds
======================
160 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.0S 76.3E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 16.9S 74.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.8S 71.5E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 20.9S 69.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=========================
Environmental conditions are still very favorable up to 36 hrs (particularly with a persisting equatorward upper outflow channel and a polar one building between 24-36 hours and sea surface temperatures are expected to keep on staying more than 27C sea surface temperatures until 48 hrs (west-southwest movement) and beyond sea surface temperature should lower more rapidly. EDZANI is expected therefore to stay steady or weaken slowly until 36-48 hrs, beyond its intensity should weaken more rapidly. The steering flow is a deep ridge in the southeast of the system. At the end of the range forecast, atrough south of the system should steer it more southern ECMWF ensemble prediction system gives 2 equiprobably scenario, one with recurve movement towards the trough, the other one without this forecast is a consensus of the available determinist Numerical Weather Prediction models which are in rather good agreement on the track and the speed of the system.