El Niño to peak in 2010; adverse impact on agri seen
A WEAK El Niño that started early May, causing unusual warming of sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, will reach its peak in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2010, the weather bureau said.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific were rising by between 0.5 degrees to 1.5 degrees centigrade, reported the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pag-asa).
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Despite the rains the past few days, Pag-asa said the country could be in for a dry spell by the end of the year while the impact of El Niño could be felt starting October to December this year and could peak from December to February next year.
Persistence of these present conditions in the tropical Pacific will continue to affect the rainfall patterns in the country for the coming season, threatening adverse impact on domestic water supply, agriculture, and day-to-day weather condition, Pag-asa added.
El Niño is the abnormal warming of the Pacific which has caused changes in sea-surface temperatures resulting in caused climatic changes: drought or heavy rains and even erratic storms.
The Department of Agriculture announced that the El Niño phenomenon may affect palay (paddy rice) production in the first and second quarter of 2010, resulting in a decline in production.
Last year’s production level was 16.82 million metric tons while this year’s target is 17.81 million metric tons.
“The first half of this year was still on track to achieving the target,” said Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap.
Provincial Agriculturist Igmedio Tabianan earlier said the province is at least 90 percent sufficient in rice production because of higher yields in palay production.
Agriculture experts consolidating weather reports and advisories said that when El Niño (causing drought) hits as forecasted, it will have ill effects on the agriculture sector.
Rainfall assessment for the month of August was unusually below normal, particularly in the western part of the country. This may be attributed to the below average frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) during the period where only one TC occurred, compared to an average of three, an early manifestation of El Niño impact, Pagasa said.
It added it will continue to closely monitor these conditions and to issue regular updates or advisories.
Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the El Niño event.
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